Day One: The Campaign Against the Islamic Republic
Operation Sha'agat HaAri — February 28, 2026
A real-time situation report from the Middle East Forum. The most significant American combat operation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the most consequential Israeli military action since the state's founding.
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RED ALERT
The Opening Hours
Timeline: First Three Hours
8:14 a.m. Israel time — 9:44 a.m. Tehran: Red alert sirens sounded across Israel. Defense Minister Israel Katz signed a nationwide state of emergency.
Operation Sha'agat HaAri (Roar of the Lion) is not a limited strike or signaling exercise. A US official told Reuters the administration planned a "multiday operation." An Israeli defense official confirmed the operation had been planned for months, with the start date set weeks ago.
First Wave Targets — Tehran
  • Khamenei's office compound — seven missiles
  • Ministry of Intelligence
  • Ministry of Defense
  • Atomic Energy Organization headquarters
  • Presidential institution near Pasteur Square
  • General Staff HQ in east Tehran
At least 30 explosions hit the capital. Fars News Agency — the regime's own outlet — confirmed strikes and smoke columns over multiple districts.

American aircraft launched strikes from multiple Middle Eastern bases and at least one aircraft carrier. Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired from the Sea of Oman. IDF confirmed "extensive sorties" striking military targets across western Iran.
Strike Map — Targets Across Iran's Full Depth
Beyond Tehran, the campaign struck targets across Iran's complete geographic depth — from the Caspian coast to the Gulf of Oman, from the Iraqi border to the Pakistani frontier.
Tehran
  • Supreme Leader's compound
  • Ministry of Intelligence
  • Ministry of Defense
  • Atomic Energy Organization HQ
  • National Security Council district
  • General Staff HQ
Nuclear & Missile Sites
  • Isfahan — nuclear-related targets
  • Qom — nuclear facilities
  • Parchin — military-weapons research
  • Tabriz — Amind missile center
  • Jam — missile city complex
  • Bushehr — near nuclear reactor
Strategic Infrastructure
  • Kharg Island — strategic oil terminal
  • Bandar Kangan — coastal military
  • Konarak — near Pakistani border
  • Minab — Seyyed al-Shohada base
  • Khorramabad — military targets
  • Karaj — military targets
Proxy Sanctuaries
  • Iraq — Jurf al-Sakhar
  • Kataib Hezbollah positions
  • PMF positions
A threshold crossed: proxy sanctuaries are no longer off-limits.
DECAPITATION STRIKE
The Command Architecture Shattered
The target list revealed intent far beyond counterproliferation. This was a systematic decapitation strike against the regime's command architecture — military, intelligence, and cyber simultaneously.
Command Targeting
Al Jazeera (Washington sources): US involvement aimed at "decapitating the Iranian regime," with attacks concentrated on areas where Khamenei might shelter.
Reuters: Khamenei was not in Tehran — moved to a secure location before strikes began.
Yedioth Ahronoth: Every missile carried a specific address. A large number of military commanders and government officials personally targeted.
Cyber Operations
IRNA state news agency hacked
Landlines down across Tehran
Near-total internet blackout (confirmed by Netblocks)
State broadcasting attacked; BadSaba app compromised
Iran's own ISNA news agency acknowledged the strikes killed "a significant number of personnel of the Revolutionary Guards Corps," many in "important operational and specialized posts." For a regime news agency to admit this in real time confirms catastrophic command damage.

Russian and Chinese air-defense systems acquired by Iran produced no observable effect over the capital. The billions Tehran invested in imported air defense purchased nothing.
Iran Retaliates — Operation True Promise 4
Approximately two hours after initial sirens, the IRGC announced "Operation True Promise 4" — ballistic missiles and drones launched at Israel and US positions across the Gulf.
Against Israel
  • Sirens across virtually every population center from Golan to Judea and Samaria
  • Arrow, David's Sling, Iron Dome intercepted the majority of threats
  • Confirmed impact in Tirat HaCarmel; damage in Haifa area
  • Two missiles specifically targeted Haifa Bay refineries
  • No large-scale Israeli casualties confirmed
Against American & Gulf Assets
  • IRGC claimed hits on Al Udeid (Qatar), Al Salem (Kuwait), Al Dhafra (UAE), Fifth Fleet HQ (Bahrain)
  • Missile struck US facility in Bahrain
  • Explosions in Abu Dhabi, Doha, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait
  • Qatar intercepted incoming fire with Patriot systems
  • Falling debris from intercepted missile killed one civilian in UAE
30+
Explosions in Tehran
Confirmed in the capital in the opening hours
7
Missiles — Khamenei Compound
Targeted the Supreme Leader's office complex
120K
IDF Reservists Mobilized
70,000 additional on top of 50,000 already active
13M
Barrels/Day at Risk
Transit through Strait of Hormuz — 31% of global seaborne crude

Assessment: The volume of fire was real. The strategic effect was marginal.
STRATEGIC TURNING POINT
The Gulf Turns — Iran's Retaliation Destroys Its Own Narrative
The single most significant strategic development of the first day — and the one least anticipated in pre-war analysis. The Islamic Republic spent four decades building an "axis of resistance" narrative. In a single morning, Iranian ballistic missiles destroyed that narrative more completely than any American or Israeli bomb could.
Saudi Arabia
Condemned "in strongest terms the blatant Iranian aggression." Listed every affected state by name. Pledged "all its capabilities" at their disposal. Called on the international community to take "all firm measures."
Bahrain
Confirmed attacks on installations. Asserted "its full right to respond" in coordination with "allies and partners" — a reference to the US Fifth Fleet headquartered there.
UAE
Confirmed Iranian ballistic missile strikes, a civilian death, and intercepted missiles with "high efficiency." Called the attack "a dangerous escalation and a cowardly act." Reserved "its full right to respond."
No Gulf state condemned the US-Israel strikes on Iran. No Gulf state called for a ceasefire. No Gulf state invoked Muslim solidarity with Tehran. No Gulf state recalled ambassadors from Washington or Jerusalem. Saudi Arabia did not call for de-escalation "from both sides."
The 2023 Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iran rapprochement is functionally dead. Iranian missiles killed it. What emerged: an axis of isolation around the Islamic Republic — the inverse of the "axis of resistance."
Proxy Activation — The Axis Responds Unevenly
The "axis of resistance" proved, under sustained pressure, to be a collection of peripheral actors incapable of defending their hub.
Hezbollah
Opened fire from Lebanon toward northern Israel. IDF responded with artillery and airstrikes. Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam warned he would "not allow anyone to drag Lebanon into adventures." Fire remained calibrated and secondary — tracking the June 2025 pattern when proxies largely stood down.
Iraqi Shiite Militias
Israel struck Jurf al-Sakhar, hitting Kataib Hezbollah and PMF positions, killing 2–3 and wounding others. Message delivered: proxy sanctuaries are no longer off-limits. Kataib Hezbollah threats of a "war of attrition" now confront the reality that their headquarters are targetable.
Houthis
Announced preparations to join, vowing missile and drone attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping. Launch preparations detected from Yemen. If combined with Houthi Red Sea attacks through Bab al-Mandeb, both major Middle Eastern shipping arteries could close simultaneously.
THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL VARIABLE
The Iranian Street
The most important development of the first day may not be military. Videos on Telegram and Iran International showed citizens celebrating strikes openly — women shouting "Death to Khamenei" from apartment windows, female students chanting "Long live the Shah," citizens filming smoke from the Khamenei compound.
Context: The January Massacres
36.5K
Estimated Killed
In 48-hour crackdown Jan 8–9
41.8K
Arrested
In regime crackdown
330K
Injured
Security forces shot wounded protesters in hospitals
Synchronized External Messaging
Trump: "The hour for your freedom is at hand... take over your government." Warned IRGC forces to surrender or face "certain death."
Netanyahu: Called on Persians, Kurds, Azeris, Balochs, Ahwazis to "cast off the yoke of tyranny."
Reza Pahlavi: Called it "humanitarian intervention," urged Iranians to prepare to return to the streets.

The open question: Does appetite translate to action? The scale of destruction, explicit calls for uprising, and depth of anger after the January massacres create fundamentally different conditions than June 2025.
Critical Warnings — What Hasn't Happened Yet
The first day's events represent only the opening phase. Several high-consequence scenarios remain untriggered — each capable of reshaping the strategic landscape.
Strait of Hormuz
Not yet tested as a chokepoint. 13 million barrels/day transit through it — 31% of global seaborne crude. Iran pre-positioned mines, fast attack boats, shore-based cruise missiles, and submarines. February 16–17 live-fire drills rehearsed the closure tactic.
European Theater
No operations confirmed in first 24 hours, but activation requires days to weeks. A regime in death throes loses the deterrent calculus that restrained sleeper cells. European authorities previously disrupted Iranian plots in Sweden and Germany. Tehran's shift to hiring local European criminals makes detection harder.
US Homeland
No operations confirmed. Hezbollah Unit 910 operatives pre-positioned. DHS bulletins reference "elevated threat environment." FBI warns known cases represent a fraction of actual Hezbollah footprint. Regime-change scenario removes incentive for restraint.

Energy Markets: Even temporary Strait of Hormuz closure could undermine domestic political support for the campaign. Saudi Arabia's offer of "all its capabilities" creates an opening for accelerated energy coordination — coordinate SPR releases with IEA, Saudi Arabia, and UAE immediately.
MEF ANALYSIS
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Strategic Picture & Policy Recommendations
The Middle East Forum published seven analyses on Day One. Key policy recommendations from the extended report "Iran Strike Scenarios: Retaliation, Transition, and the Path Forward":
01
Deploy Humanitarian Infrastructure Immediately
$2 billion minimum for first 90 days
02
Make the National Reconciliation Council Operational Today
25+ representatives from all constituencies — Kurdish, Baluch, Arab, Azeri interlocutors
03
Designate Broadcasting Seizure as Priority Military Objective
Seize IRIB — don't destroy it. Control the narrative infrastructure
04
Elevate Homeland Defense Posture
Treat sleeper cell activation as imminent. Coordinate with European partners
05
Stabilize Energy Markets Now
Coordinate SPR releases with IEA, Saudi Arabia, UAE before Hormuz is tested
06
Announce Amnesty-Accountability Framework Immediately
Rank-and-file amnesty, commander accountability. Avoid the Chalabi Trap — do not pre-anoint any single opposition figure
Iran is not Iraq. It possesses a 2,500-year national identity, 98% literacy, a large educated middle class, a functioning bureaucratic state, and a population that has repeatedly demonstrated capacity for self-organization. The raw material for democratic transition exists. But the window between regime collapse and state failure closes fast.
Read the Full Analyses — meforum.org
Gregg Roman, Executive Director:
"The Night the Axis Broke" · "The Gulf Turns" · "The Hub Under Pressure" · "Iran Strike Scenarios: Retaliation, Transition, and the Path Forward"
Michael Rubin, AEI Senior Fellow:
"Trump Wants to Bomb His Way to Regime Change" · "The Houthis Can Survive Iranian Regime Change" · "Be Careful About Blaming the US or Israel for Killing Iranian Schoolgirls"
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